3月15日俄乌战报：普京派特使向泽连斯基求和 March 15 Russia-Ukraine war report: Putin sent a special envoy to Zelensky to ask for peace
2023年3月15日，俄乌战争进入第385天。
今天的焦点新闻，是俄军的苏-27在黑海上空“击落”美国MQ-9“死神”无人机。
据悉，这个“击落”比较有技术性，俄军苏-27是通过放油和碰撞MQ-9螺旋桨的方式，将后者摧毁的（俄罗斯军方表示没有接触）。
目前黑海舰队已经出动打捞船去坠机海域进行打捞，据说美国人已经在第一时间删除了无人机上的机密数据。（https://twitter.com/uniswap12 ）
MQ-9号称世界上最恐怖的军用无人机，翼展20米，最高时速460公里/小时，续航可达15小时，最多能够挂载2枚GBU-12激光制导炸弹和4枚AGM-114“地狱火”空地导弹，以及227千克的“联合直接攻击弹药”和113.5千克的小直径炸弹，杀伤力十分之强，死神的名号实至名归。
其最著名的战例，是对塔利班最高领导人阿赫塔尔·穆罕默德·曼苏尔的斩首 — — 2016年5月22日，美军联合特种作战司令部（JSOC）操控MQ-9无人机，用两枚“地狱火”导弹将在车里的曼苏尔当场击毙。
在MQ-9被俄军技术性击落之后，外网一片欢腾，亲乌和亲俄媒体都非常高兴，虽然理由各有不同。
个人认为这次“意外”最后会被冷处理，但米帝非常可能以此为契机，升级军援。
回到战场上来。
昨日俄军在各条战线上共计减员740人，此外还有10辆坦克、15辆装甲运兵车、16门火炮、2套多管火箭炮、1套防空系统，以及11架无人机遭摧毁。
截止目前，俄军总计损失了160540人。
在北线，根据俄方的视频，Dvorichna附近的乌军很可能已经全部撤退到Oskil河之后，前线进一步向南移动。
需要注意的是，这个撤退是乌军在没有受到大规模攻击的情况下，主动完成的。
按照以往的经验，渡河战常常成为俄军的命门，乌军在Oskil河南岸建立防线的选择非常明智，同时也说明俄军近期可能在此方向会有大动作。
在克里米纳方向，Under Armour的消息来源称，俄罗斯军队在装甲部队的协同下在Dibrova北部发起了一次攻击，目前仍不清楚结果如何。但上一次他们这么做的时候，损失十分之惨重。
在Bilohorivka，俄罗斯人成为无人机+炮兵的靶子，不得不放弃阵地撤走了。
在焦点战场巴赫穆特，战斗依然十分激烈。
有视频显示，双方在城区内近距离交火，就像我在前天的文章说的那样，死亡贴面舞已经开始了。
重播00:36 / 00:36
在具体的战况上，巴赫穆特北面的俄罗斯军队正在向高地作战，不过至今还没有成功。Orikhovo-Vasylivka西部的整个山脊明显较高，这给了乌克兰人一个防御优势。
在北部城区，战斗继续围绕着AZOM金属工厂区进行。
昨日外网出现了一些瓦格纳部队在 AZOM 金属厂北部和西北部的照片，不过由于拍摄时间未明，不知道是不是此前被故意放入，并在遭到痛扁后丢下30多具尸体之后逃走的那一次留下的。
无论如何，此前我们介绍过，这是一个类类似于亚速钢铁厂的地方，有一个巨大的隧道网络，且武器弹药、粮食、医药等储备非常丰富，除非乌军主动放弃，否则很难被攻陷（可以参考去年马里乌波尔之战的情形）。
在巴赫穆特南部，局势已经十分稳定，战斗更多地发生在墓地周围，而不是它的西面。
总体来看，巴赫穆特情况尚好，尽管有消息称，北部经过Khromove的通道已经处于俄军的直接威胁之下，但南部经Ivanivske道路依然畅通。
西尔斯基前两条天视察巴赫穆特说，战争是心理学，如果敌人紧张，你必须让他保持焦虑状态让他犯错，敌人对危险的顾虑必然心生恐慌接而产生混乱，其结果就是重演“善意的姿态”。
这是暗示俄罗斯人要在巴赫穆特重复蛇岛式的善意撤退吗？
dva_majors的报道称，乌克兰武装部队计划在春季解冻后反攻，最有可能在扎波罗热，同时在第聂伯河对岸的赫尔松地区登陆。
尽管乌军对连接俄罗斯本土与克里米亚的陆地走廊的攻击已经传了很久，失去了突然性（当代的战争，突然袭击的可能性本来就很小），但我依然认为，这里仍然是乌军的反攻首先，因为补给和纵深的缺乏，决定那里始终是俄军最薄弱的环节。
梅利托波尔的俄罗斯傀儡弗拉基米尔·罗戈夫称，根据他们的情报，乌克兰的空中力量开始向南方转移，这可能意味着乌军的反击就要开始了。
目前俄军已经开始在南线撤离大量撤离傀儡官员。
据悉，在赫尔松和扎波罗热的俄占区内，之前投降并被委任为当地官员的傀儡出现了严重的恐慌情绪，非常担心乌军突然反攻来不及逃跑，纷纷要求离开那里。
目前这些人已经被俄军逐步被转移到克里米亚地区，通过遥控来管理当地事务。
再来看看战场之外的消息。
继匈牙利和印度之后，塞尔维亚现在也在重新考虑对俄罗斯的立场。
就像我此前说的那样，在俄乌之间“观望”的空间，现在已经没有了。
大多数国家都开始看到这场战争中哪一方会输，并且十分清楚，如果他们继续支持俄罗斯，会对他们自己造成什么样的伤害。
此外，昨天还有一个大消息在外网上疯传，该消息来自电报群里的挺俄博主。
据传，普京已经派出特使秘密访问基辅和泽连斯基讨论直接媾和，具体的议题是，如果俄军退出全部乌克兰领土，恢复到1991年俄乌边界，那么，乌克兰和美国会给予俄罗斯什么样的回报。
据说美国中央情报局局长和英国、德国、法国的情报首长都聚集在华沙，等待进一步的消息。
乌克兰总统顾问波利亚克拒绝对此事做出评价，但是，他说了一句意味深长的话：
”战争可能比我们预期的更早结束“。
最后照例是花絮时间。
在俄占区新卡霍夫卡，俄方委任的傀儡市长vitaly guru昨日遭到乌克兰游击队汽车炸弹袭击，并被送往医院。
在弗勒达（Vuhledar）一个阵亡的俄军官身上找到的一个“账本”。上面带圈的数字是记载着执行突击任务的人数，下面是回来的人数。
比如，2月26号去了84个只回去了6个，3月1日的100个只回去了16个。
乌克兰游击队在赫尔松方向炸毁俄军的补给铁路。
欧盟国家将在下周签署一项联合计划，为乌克兰购买（最重要的是155毫米）弹药
为乌克兰而战的车臣士兵表示，“我们将解放一个又一个城市”。
入室顺东西的俄军士兵。
在德国、西班牙进行豹2A4训练任务的乌军士兵，将于今天和”豹子“一起返回乌克兰参加战斗。
俄罗斯每天不可或缺的大火，这回烧了一个1600平方米的金属机库。
乌克兰国土防卫旅的士兵，在被毁的米格-17纪念碑前留影，力证巴赫穆特还在。
俄罗斯BTR-82在对Vuhledar的袭击中被地雷炸毁，指挥官和司机都挂了。
第10山地突击旅在东部作战的画面，这些天东部战线非常吵，俄军表示睡不着觉了。
爱沙尼亚志愿军人Ivo Jurak在Bakhmut牺牲。
6岁乌克兰体操运动员 Sasha Paskal 在俄罗斯对敖德萨的导弹袭击中失去了一条腿，经过几个月的康复治疗，她现在已经恢复了体操训练。
自俄军大规模入侵开始以来，俄罗斯已造成至少464名儿童死亡，934名儿童受伤。
乌克兰国防部昨天发布图文说道：
”过去不同职业的人，现在的英雄！志愿者无畏地与我们国防和安全部队的所有战士一起保卫乌克兰。“
”我们将记住每一个为自由和乌克兰成为一个胜利的国家而献出生命的人！“
普京在演讲中表示，”全世界都在嫉妒俄罗斯，我们有贫困，但是国家很稳定。”
除了”呵呵“，我想不出该说什么。
就像我此前所说的那样，这场战争，其实是两种理念的对决 — —
一种是旧帝国的理念，将疆域的扩张放在第一位；
一种是现代国家的思维，将科技、文化和贸易的竞争力，看成国家发展的方向。
一个国家，如果经济衰颓，可以靠实干得到发展；如果科技落后，可以通过不断的努力提高；但如果理念落伍，那就真的无可救药了。
今天的俄罗斯，就是那个无可救药的国家！
（冯小刚：还有谁？）
文/西楼饮月
On March 15, 2023, the Russian-Ukrainian war entered its 385th day.
Today’s highlight is the “downing” of a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Black Sea by a Russian Su-27.
It is reported that this “shoot down” is more technical, the Russian Su-27 was destroyed by releasing fuel and colliding with the MQ-9 propeller (the Russian military said there was no contact).
The Black Sea Fleet has sent salvage ships to the crash site to salvage the aircraft, and the Americans are said to have deleted the classified data on the drone in the first place.
The MQ-9 is known as the world’s most terrifying military drone, with a wingspan of 20 meters, a top speed of 460 km/h, a range of 15 hours, and the ability to mount up to two GBU-12 laser-guided bombs and four AGM-114 Hellfire air-to-ground missiles, as well as 227 kg of “The combined direct attack munition (JDAM) and 113.5 kg of small-diameter bombs have a very high lethality and deserve the name of Reaper.
Its most famous example is the beheading of Taliban supreme leader Akhtar Mohammed Mansour — on May 22, 2016, the U.S. Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) operated an MQ-9 drone and used two Hellfire missiles to kill Mansour instantly while he was in the vehicle.
After the MQ-9 was technically shot down by the Russians, there was a lot of joy on the Internet, and both pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian media were very happy, although for different reasons.
Personally, I think this “accident” will end up in the cold, but it is very likely that the MiD will use it as an opportunity to escalate military aid.
Back to the battlefield.
Russian troops lost a total of 740 men on all fronts yesterday, in addition to 10 tanks, 15 armored personnel carriers, 16 artillery pieces, 2 multiple rocket launchers, 1 air defense system, and 11 drones that were destroyed.
So far, Russian forces have lost a total of 160,540 men.
On the northern front, according to Russian video, it is likely that all of the Ukrainian forces near Dvorichna have retreated behind the Oskil River, with the front moving further south.
It should be noted that this retreat was accomplished by the U.S. Army on its own initiative, without a large-scale attack.
According to past experience, river crossing battles often become the Russian army’s lifeline, and the choice of the Ukrainian army to establish a defense line on the south bank of the Oskil River is very wise, and also indicates that the Russian army may make a big move in this direction in the near future.
In the direction of Crimina, Under Armour’s sources say that Russian forces, in concert with armored units, launched an attack north of Dibrova, and it remains unclear what the outcome was. But the last time they did so, the losses were very heavy.
In Bilohorivka, the Russians became targets for drones + artillery and had to abandon their positions and withdraw.
In Bakhmut, the focal battleground, the fighting is still very intense.
There are videos showing both sides exchanging fire at close range in the city, and as I said in my post the day before, the dance of death veneer has begun.
In terms of specific fighting, Russian forces north of Bakhmut are fighting their way to higher ground, though so far without success. the entire ridge west of Orikhovo-Vasylivka is significantly higher, which gives the Ukrainians a defensive advantage.
In the northern part of the city, the fighting continues around the AZOM metal factory area.
Some photos of Wagner forces in the north and northwest of the AZOM metal factory appeared on the extranet yesterday, although since the time of the shooting is not known, it is not known if they were left from the previous one when they were deliberately put in and fled after being thrashed and leaving more than 30 bodies behind.
In any case, as we have previously described, this is a place similar to the Azov steel plant, with a huge network of tunnels and a huge reserve of weapons, ammunition, food, medicine, etc., which is very difficult to capture unless the U.S. Army gives up voluntarily (see last year’s battle of Mariupol).
In the south of Bakhmut, the situation is already very stable, with fighting taking place more around the cemetery than to its west.
Overall, the situation in Bakhmut is good, although there are reports that the northern passage through Khromove is under direct threat from Russian forces, but the southern road through Ivanivske is still open.
Siletsky, who visited Bakhmut two days ago, said that war is psychology, and if the enemy is nervous, you must keep him in a state of anxiety and let him make mistakes, and the enemy’s fear of danger will inevitably lead to panic and chaos, which will result in a repeat of the “goodwill gesture”.
Is this a hint that the Russians are going to repeat the Snake Island-style goodwill retreat in Bakhmut?
dva_majors reports that the Ukrainian armed forces are planning a counter-offensive after the spring thaw, most likely in Zaporozhye, with a landing across the Dnieper in Kherson.
Although the Ukrainian attack on the land corridor connecting the Russian mainland to Crimea has been rumored for a long time and lost its suddenness (in contemporary warfare, the possibility of a surprise attack is inherently small), I still think that this is still the first place for the Ukrainian counter-offensive, since the lack of supplies and depth determines that it will always be the weakest link for the Russian army.
Vladimir Rogov, the Russian stooge in Melitopol, says that according to their intelligence, Ukrainian air power is starting to shift to the south, which could mean that a counterattack by the U.S. Army is about to begin.
Currently Russian troops have started to evacuate a large number of evacuated puppet officials on the southern front.
It is reported that in the Russian-occupied areas of Kherson and Zaporozhye, puppets who previously surrendered and were appointed as local officials are in a serious panic and are very worried about the sudden counterattack of the Ukrainian army to escape in time and have asked to leave there.
These people have now been gradually transferred to the Crimea by the Russian army to manage local affairs by remote control.
Then come the news from beyond the battlefield.
After Hungary and India, Serbia is now reconsidering its position on Russia.
As I said earlier, the space for “wait and see” between Russia and Ukraine is now gone.
Most countries are beginning to see which side will lose this war and are well aware of the damage they will do to themselves if they continue to support Russia.
In addition, there was big news that went viral on the extranet yesterday that came from pro-Russian bloggers in the Telegraph group.
Putin is rumored to have sent an envoy to secretly visit Kiev and Zelensky to discuss direct peacemaking, specifically on the subject of what Ukraine and the U.S. would give Russia in return if Russian troops were to withdraw from all Ukrainian territory and return to the 1991 Russian-Ukrainian border.
The director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the intelligence chiefs of Britain, Germany and France are said to have gathered in Warsaw to await further news.
Ukrainian presidential adviser Poliak declined to comment on the matter, but he made a telling remark.
“The war may end sooner than we expect.”
Finally, as usual, it was flap time.
In the Russian-occupied district of Novokachovka, the Russian-appointed puppet mayor, vitaly guru, was attacked yesterday by a Ukrainian guerrilla car bomb and taken to hospital.
A “ledger” found on the body of a fallen Russian officer in Vuhledar. The circled numbers show the number of people who carried out the raid, and the number of people who returned.
For example, on February 26, 84 went and only 6 returned, and on March 1, 100 went and only 16 returned.
Ukrainian partisans blew up the Russian supply railroad in the direction of Kherson.
EU countries will sign a joint plan next week to buy (most importantly, 155mm) ammunition for Ukraine
“We will liberate one city after another,” say Chechen soldiers fighting for Ukraine.
Russian soldiers who entered the house to smooth things out.
U.S. soldiers on Leopard 2A4 training missions in Germany and Spain will return to Ukraine today to join the fight with the Leopards.
Russia’s daily indispensable fire, this time in a metal hangar of 1,600 square meters.
Soldiers of the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Brigade, pictured in front of the destroyed MiG-17 monument, testify that Bakhmut is still alive.
The Russian BTR-82 was destroyed by a mine during an attack on Vuhledar, killing the commander and driver.
Footage of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade fighting in the east, the eastern front is so noisy these days that Russian troops say they can’t sleep.
Estonian volunteer Ivo Jurak died in Bakhmut.
Six-year-old Ukrainian gymnast Sasha Paskal, who lost her leg in a Russian missile attack on Odessa, is now back to gymnastics training after months of rehabilitation.
Russia has killed at least 464 children and injured 934 since the start of the massive Russian invasion.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry released a graphic yesterday saying.
“People of different professions in the past, now heroes! Volunteers who fearlessly defend Ukraine together with all the fighters of our defense and security forces. “
“We will remember everyone who gave their lives for freedom and for Ukraine to become a victorious country! “
Putin said in his speech, “The whole world is jealous of Russia, we have poverty, but the country is stable.”
I can’t think of anything to say except “huh”.
As I said before, this war is really a duel of two ideas -
one is the idea of the old empire, which puts the expansion of the frontier first.
One is the thinking of the modern state, which sees the competitiveness of technology, culture and trade as the direction of national development.
If a country’s economy is in decline, it can develop through practical work; if it lags behind in science and technology, it can improve through continuous efforts; but if the concept is outdated, it is really hopeless.
Today’s Russia is that hopeless country!
(Feng Xiaogang: Who else?)
(Feng Xiaogang: who else?)
