How to complete the original accumulation by making a transaction?丨 What is trend trading

唐华斑竹
6 min readMay 9, 2020

People don’t really care about value investment at all, they care more about giving speculation a proper name, so as to walk the rivers and lakes.
Some words were too much, and I believed in myself, so I wasted years. In fact, it is not necessary. As a king of speculation, trend trading has nothing to be ashamed of.
Probably, people walking in rivers and lakes do not really want to make a deal.
【1丨 Trend Trading】
If value investment plays cash flow, then trend trading plays leverage. Many trading methods also use leverage, but only the leverage of trend trading is called art, which is also a fascinating place for speculation.
Trend trading, reflected in the delivery order, earns a spread, which is usually the same as other speculations.
When the dead wood meets spring, the fate of harmony, its big trick: floating profit plus warehouse with its power, will send you to Qingyun ten times and one hundred times.
Before that, trend trading required a lot of research, the main research things are:
Certainty (trend)
Fund management
risk
As with the Value Investment article, we will make it clear first, what is important and what is not important for trend trading.
【二 丨 Open position】
Let’s start by opening a position, assuming there is such a market:

A stock fell from 120 to 100 and then rebounded to 150.
For ordinary speculation, there are basically two approaches: left-hand trading and right-hand trading.
The trade on the left is to buy more and more, and to buy after falling to 110, so that you can always copy to the end. The disadvantage is that it is very tormenting, and quilts are also very common.
The transaction on the right is to buy after a rebound. Once a V-shape appears, buy it. The disadvantage is that it is easy to buy on the top of a small rebound, in case the cost of the quilt cover is not lower than the left side.
As for which method is good, there will be no results if you fight back and forth. Because Guan Gong and Qin Qiong alone can’t see the superiority, but if it’s Guan Gong under Liu Bei, and Qin Qiong under the slogan, then the superiority is different. Here is a match.
As a value investor, it does not matter where you open a position, as long as it is cheap enough. So buy as soon as there are bargains, often on the left.
As a trend trader, with leverage, it doesn’t matter when you enter the market. The focus is not on opening positions, but on certainty, so it is often on the right.
So many experts say that the position of opening positions is not very important. Because the link of opening a position, it is not the main research thing to make thousands of miles from making money.
So how does leverage change gameplay?
【三 丨 Leverage】
There are many ways to achieve leverage, such as funding, margin, power, gambling, hedging, etc. In summary, it means that you take a piece of money and do a lot of things.
As far as the allocation is concerned, I have 100, and I found someone to borrow 900, so I can buy 1,000 shares now. Borrowing money to speculate, does it sound familiar? It sounds like a gambler, which is why many people talk about lever discoloration, and I will talk about it later.
It’s still the market just now, and with the leverage, the difference between the left and right sides comes out.
The trading on the left is blunt, that is, there is a single way to enhance returns, and you can only find a position as low as possible to open a position. This is also the reason why many wasabi octopuses want to go to the bottom because it is difficult to make money without doing so. Let’s assume that there is an A with a principal of 10,000 and successfully slashed the bottom and made a net profit of 5,000. This is already the limit.
While B is a leveraged trend trader, as we just said, the important thing is certainty. Suppose the market is very clear at 130 hours, so he has a principal of 10,000, borrowed 29,000, a total of 39,000, bought at 130. He also escaped with precision, so he earned 6,000.
As you can see, even if the opening position is very bad, B profit can easily outperform A. For B, the opening point is not important, the important thing is certainty. At the same time, the rate of change is not important. Even if there is only 20 points left, it will not affect profitability.
With the existence of leverage, the method of enhancing earnings has changed.

Let ’s go a step further, assuming that the certainty is so great that we can use floating profit to increase the position, ten times the leverage of floating profit (the futures level leverage):
The principal is 10,000, borrowed 81000, buy 7 stocks.
When it rises to 140, it floats to 7000.
Close the position, the principal becomes 17000.
Borrow 151000, buy 12 lots of stock, the price is 140.
Rising to 150 to close the position, the principal becomes 29000.
B ended up earning 19,000 net, the same increase, only earning 2000 on A’s side.
This is actually not a lot, I have seen some experts who use more than one hundred times leverage, every 1% floating profit increase positions trading records. In just one or two weeks, the net worth is hundreds, and it is real (non-option).
【Four 丨 Risk】
With such high returns, everyone is concerned about risk, which is a good thing.
When the stock price drops 10%, the principal is lost. It is what we often say about liquidation. Since it is possible to liquidate, how should trend trading respond?
That is fund management. First, through research certainty, most risks are screened out. Then through the fund management to control the risk, the fund management will be introduced in our later articles.
The simple saying is the old saying: cut losses and let profits run-the premise of this sentence is certainty. And it only applies to trend trading. As a value investor, this sentence is useless.
Speaking of which, I need to emphasize again that classification is really important. Wasabi octopus learned all kinds of masters, and finally left-handed value investment, right-handedly cut losses, but money did not know where to go.
【Five 丨 Opportunities】
Since the size of the income can bypass the restrictions of opening points and the range of fluctuations, then we look at opportunities suitable for trading, and we will find that it is everywhere. What price is too high, what mosquito legs, as long as the certainty exceeds the threshold, you can trade.
The advantage of more opportunities is that you will not rush to open positions. For trend traders, opportunities are like air. Air is a good thing, but no one will take a deep breath all the time, because air is not scarce.
For the so-called once-in-a-lifetime market, trend traders do not have to rush into the market at all, because it is okay if the entry point is not good, the certainty is not enough, and it is a pity to have less leverage.
Waiting for the opportunity that suits you is the most important. To put it bluntly, it is still certainty.
Thinking about this problem, you may have a deeper understanding of certainty: Why do many people dare to take 30% down payment and borrow 70% of the bank loan to speculate?
【Six 丨 Summary】
To sum up a bit, trend trading is to find high-certainty opportunities. After making good money management and trading plans, use leverage, even floating profits to increase positions, to obtain a large number of spreads.
Due to space limitations, trend trading is briefly introduced here, and about certainty, the following articles will continue to be introduced.
Finally, ask yourself a question: Are you afraid of borrowing money to speculate? Do you have enough skills to deal with the difficulties encountered in borrowing money and stocks?
If you are a bit hesitant, value investing may be a better place.

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