Three months after the epidemic broke out, Trump’s approval rating remained at the highest level?
It is worth mentioning that when the latest investigation was carried out, Trump had not yet made an amazing statement about “injection disinfectant”.
As the new crown epidemic swept across the United States and the number of diagnoses exceeded 1.15 million, many people speculated that the epidemic would have a profound impact on the US election at the end of 2020.
On April 30, a report released by Gallup, a public opinion survey agency, showed that the public’s satisfaction rate for Trump’s overall work reached 49%, which not only pulled back the 6 percentage point drop in the survey in early April, but also held him flat ‘S highest personal record. Although the satisfaction rate for his “anti-epidemic” work has been reduced by 10% compared with March, 50% of Americans still recognize his work. However, it is worth mentioning that when the latest investigation was carried out, Trump had not yet made an amazing statement about “injection disinfectant”.
The British media “The Economist” published the latest US election report on May 2, using the “multi-level regression and ex-post stratification” (MRP) statistical method to analyze the raw data of the YouGov survey network.
The MRP statistical model shows that if the general election happens in the present moment, 41% of the white people participating in the vote will vote for Biden and 51% will vote for Trump-Trump will lead by 10%. In 2016, Hillary lost 15% to Trump in this group.
The model shows that if a state ’s working-class whites make up the majority of voters, Biden ’s approval rating is 11% higher than that of Hillary Clinton; otherwise, it is 6% lower (see chart below), which may have implications for the final election. Unexpected impact. In 2016, Hillary lost in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and Biden currently has a weak lead in all three states. In addition, Biden may also get better votes in Arizona than Hillary, which is exactly The most likely state on the battlefield in the Midwest will influence the final election.
But Biden’s appeal to non-white and young voters is a bit awkward.
Public opinion data shows that African-Americans support Biden by 72% higher than Trump-the data is very good, but in 2016, Hillary ’s figure reached 80%; Latino Americans also have this tendency . In other words, compared with the last election, Trump is gaining more support from black and Latino Americans.
As for the young voters, most of them are Democrats, and it is possible that Biden will be supported less this time than Hillary Clinton. The good news for Biden is that the turnout rate of this group of people has always been low-according to the US Census Bureau statistics, only 43% of them participated in the vote in 2016. The Economist ’s model analysis shows that young people under 30 Only 53% will vote in the general election. And most of them are concentrated in the safest blue states of the Democratic Party. Combined with the American Electoral College system, the impact on the final election may be smaller than it is.
Trump may continue to enjoy the dividends of the Electoral College system because several agricultural states in the United States are inclined to the Republican Party and hold a disproportionately large number of electoral votes. According to the model, Trump may lose 2–3% of the popular vote and still win more than half of the electoral votes.
As of now, Biden is still 6% ahead of Trump in support. If the general election is held today, he is likely to become the next president, but it is still half a year before the final election in November, and it is too early to say. .