提前分析特斯拉财报，需要关注几个关键点 To analyze Tesla’s financial report in advance, you need to pay attention to several key points
2022年第四季度业绩电话会议定于美东时间1月25日（周三）下午5:30举行。该公司还将公布其截至12月31日的全年财务业绩。
华尔街怎么看本次财报？
分析师预期Q4特斯拉营收246.2亿美元，大致符合预期。这将标志着同比增长约 40%，环比增长 16%。
经调整后的净利润为40.15亿美元，同比减少7.69%。
每股收益可能约为1.14 美元，高于去年同期的 0.85 美元。
随着22Q4以及23Q1的大降价，分析师们对特斯拉未来EPS都显著下调，特别是2023年，几乎认为个位数的利润增长。然而即使是这样，目前股价的2023 Forward PE也仅是30倍，是2019年以来最低点。
增长总有瓶颈，因此毛利率更重要！年底短暂的减价对Q4整体毛利率影响较小，特斯拉只有靠着技术突破才能如马斯克所愿大幅降低成本（4680何时能与产能匹配是重点，以及皮卡推出时间点）
特斯拉的营业利润率在全球排名第三，仅次于和宝马。第三季度，该公司公布了27.9%的汽车毛利率，与第二季度持平，但比第一季度的32.9%有所下降。
特斯拉的降价被视为刺激全球需求的一种方式。许多分析师认为，随着越来越多的竞争对手进入电动汽车行业，特斯拉正在与全球需求作斗争。
然而，由于供应链问题，特斯拉在过去两年多次提高价格。看起来，尽管这家汽车制造商每辆车的利润如此之高，但消费者仍然在寻找该公司提供的价格实惠且具有竞争力的电动汽车。
关注2023年的业绩指引
在2022年的绝大多数时间里，特斯拉始终维持着“未来几年的交付年均增长率将达50%”的预期，并定下了2022年全球销量目标 — — 150万辆。但是据特斯拉2023年1月初公布的数据显示，2022年特斯拉的总交付量为131万，同比增长40%，不及去年第三季度重申的50%的增长目标。
特斯拉是否继续维持、或者转而调整全球销售的指引预期，将是本次财报的重点之一。
当前，华尔街预计，特斯拉将在2023年第一季度交付约44.5万辆，全年交付190万辆。而基于该预期目标，公司将如何提升产能、创造更大的需求、应对竞争力的下滑等，同样影响市场对其投资价值的判断。
马斯克的注意力是否会继续集中在特斯拉或上，很可能是特斯拉投资者心中最大的问题。虽然收购Twitter似乎占据了马斯克的大部分时间，但他最近明确表示，特斯拉是首要任务。
Q1可以注意的利好
公众普遍认为降价的最大原因可能与美国国税局的新规有关，尤其在美国，拜登去年8月签署的《削减通胀法案》，为符合资质的电动和插电式混合动力车型提供最高7500美元的税收抵免。按照新规，2023年部分特斯拉车型将再次有资格获得7500美元的退税。
Model Y 首当其冲，在降价1.3万美元后还可以获得额外的7500美元补助以及4000美金的抵缴税务价值，这就等于现在购买一辆model Y 也许等于比几天前少花费了2万。
大幅降价可以很好的抑制到外来的竞争
1、特斯拉的FSD v11.3将开始使用神经网络进行车辆导航和控制，而不仅仅是视觉。这也许会是在接下来Q1起到至关重要的技术突破。tesla宣布降价，让新能源汽车市场在2023年最开始就进入了竞争白热化阶段，这对于部分利润较小的车企而言无疑是“灾难”。
2、而且公布第三季度财报时，马斯克表示将在2023Q1斥资50亿美元到100亿美元回购股票。只是这么做也许会违背他们最开始对于投资人做出的承诺，也就是“公司会保留未来的所有盈利，为进一步增长计划提供资金。” 而且特斯拉已经存在了巨大的现金需求，今年的资本支出相当于现金储备的34%左右，相比之下支出仅占6%。很难想象他们将如何执行如此大的回购计划。
不可否认特斯拉在美国电动汽车市场仍然占据主导地位，在中国似乎也是如此。根据Wedbush对500名正在考虑购买电动汽车的中国消费者的调查，76%的人表示他们受到了积极影响而购买了特斯拉.
预测，Model 3和Model Y的降价可能会导致销量增长53%。但鉴于小鹏（XPEV）在降价方面的反应如此迅速，想重申的是，与TSLA的3和Y车型相比，G3i和G9车型在可承受性和每次充电的续航里程方面构成了严重威胁。此外，（NIO）的ES8和EC7也受到了许多中国SUV消费者的青睐。
分析师纷纷下调目标价
近期，长期看涨特斯拉的美国投银Jefferies将目标价砍掉将近一半：从350美元下调49%至180美元。
投行Cowen分析师也将特斯拉目标价从205美元降至122美元。该行表示，投资者的注意力正在转向1月25日财报的利润率上，原本奥斯汀和柏林两个工厂是重大利好，但汽车售价的走低给2023年利润率增添了未知数。
总体而言，多家投行的分析师认为，特斯拉交付量增长的放缓可能意味着固定成本吸收率的降低，进而损害公司的利润率。而特斯拉一直在交付时提供补贴等折扣，也降低了每笔销售为公司提供的收入。这些不利因素为他们下调对这家公司的目标价提供了充足的理由。
不过多家投行在近期对特斯拉的建议多为持有以及买入。
本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成投资建议，本人不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性作出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。
The fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call is scheduled for Wednesday, January 25 at 5:30 p.m. ET. The company will also announce its financial results for the full year ended Dec. 31.
What does Wall Street think of this financial report?
Analysts expect Tesla’s revenue of $24.62 billion in Q4, roughly in line with expectations. This would mark an increase of approximately 40% year-over-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter.
The adjusted net profit was US$4.015 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.69%.
Earnings per share are likely to be around $1.14, up from $0.85 a year earlier.
With the big price cuts in 22Q4 and 23Q1, analysts have significantly lowered Tesla’s future EPS, especially in 2023, and almost believe that single-digit profit growth. However, even so, the current 2023 Forward PE of the stock price is only 30 times, which is the lowest point since 2019.
There is always a bottleneck in growth, so gross margin is more important! The short-term price reduction at the end of the year has little impact on the overall gross profit margin of Q4. Only by relying on technological breakthroughs can Tesla significantly reduce costs as Musk wishes (when the 4680 can match the production capacity is the key point, and when the pickup truck will be launched)
Tesla’s operating profit margin ranks third in the world, behind only Tesla and BMW. In the third quarter, the company reported an automotive gross margin of 27.9%, flat from the second quarter but down from 32.9% in the first quarter.
Tesla’s price cuts are seen as a way to stimulate global demand. Many analysts believe Tesla is struggling with global demand as more competitors enter the electric vehicle industry.
However, Tesla has raised prices several times over the past two years due to supply chain issues. It appears that despite the automaker’s high margins per vehicle, consumers are still looking for the company’s affordable and competitive EV offerings.
Focus on 2023 performance guidance
For most of 2022, Tesla has always maintained the expectation that “the average annual growth rate of deliveries in the next few years will reach 50%”, and set a global sales target for 2022 — — 1.5 million vehicles. However, according to data released by Tesla in early January 2023, Tesla’s total delivery volume in 2022 will be 1.31 million, a year-on-year increase of 40%, which is not as good as the 50% growth target reiterated in the third quarter of last year.
Whether Tesla will continue to maintain or adjust its global sales guidance will be one of the focuses of this earnings report.
Currently, Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver about 445,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2023 and 1.9 million vehicles for the year. Based on this expected goal, how the company will increase production capacity, create greater demand, and cope with the decline in competitiveness will also affect the market’s judgment on its investment value.
Whether Musk’s attention will continue to be focused on Tesla or Tesla is probably the biggest question on Tesla investors’ minds. While the Twitter acquisition appears to take up much of Musk’s time, he recently made it clear that Tesla is a priority.
Good things you can pay attention to in Q1
The biggest reason for the price cuts is widely believed to be likely to be related to new rules from the IRS, especially in the U.S., where Biden signed the Inflation Cut Act last August, offering up to $7,500 for qualifying electric and plug-in hybrid models. tax credits. Under the new rules, some Tesla models will once again be eligible for the $7,500 rebate in 2023.
Model Y is the first to bear the brunt. After a price reduction of US$13,000, you can also get an additional subsidy of US$7,500 and a tax-deductible value of US$4,000. This is equivalent to buying a model Y now, which may be equivalent to spending 20,000 less than a few days ago.
Substantial price cuts can well curb foreign competition
1. Tesla’s FSD v11.3 will start using neural networks for vehicle navigation and control, not just vision. This may be a crucial technological breakthrough in the next Q1. Tesla announced a price cut, bringing the new energy vehicle market into a stage of intense competition from the very beginning in 2023, which will undoubtedly be a “disaster” for some car companies with small profits.
2. And when the third quarter financial report was announced, Musk said that he would spend US$5 billion to US$10 billion to repurchase shares in 2023Q1. It’s just that doing so may violate their original promise to investors, that is, “the company will retain all future profits to fund further growth plans.” And Tesla already has huge cash needs. Capex is equivalent to around 34% of cash reserves, compared to just 6% for expenditures. It’s hard to imagine how they would execute such a large buyback program.
There’s no denying Tesla’s continued dominance in the U.S. EV market, and it appears the same is true in China. According to a Wedbush survey of 500 Chinese consumers who were considering buying an electric car, 76 percent said they were positively influenced to buy a Tesla.
Price cuts for the Model 3 and Model Y could lead to a 53% increase in sales, the forecast predicts. But given that Xpeng (XPEV) has been so responsive in terms of price cuts, just want to reiterate that the G3i and G9 models pose a serious threat in terms of affordability and range per charge compared to TSLA’s 3 and Y models . In addition, (NIO)’s ES8 and EC7 are also favored by many Chinese SUV consumers.
Analysts have lowered their target prices
Recently, American investment bank Jefferies, which is long-term bullish on Tesla, cut its target price by nearly half: from $350 to $180 by 49%.
Analysts at investment bank Cowen also lowered their target price on Tesla from $205 to $122. The bank said that investors’ attention is turning to the profit margin of the January 25 financial report. The two plants in Austin and Berlin were originally a major positive, but the lower car prices have added unknowns to the profit margin in 2023.
Overall, analysts at several investment banks believe that a slowdown in Tesla’s delivery growth could mean a reduction in the absorption rate of fixed costs, hurting the company’s profit margins. And Tesla has been offering discounts such as subsidies on deliveries, reducing the revenue each sale provides the company. These headwinds provide ample reason for them to lower their price target on the company.
However, many investment banks have recently suggested holding and buying Tesla.
The opinions in this article represent the author’s personal opinions only, and do not constitute investment advice. I do not make any guarantees for the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, nor shall I be liable for any losses caused by using or relying on the information in the article.
